Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.703715 2.875901 3.064530 3.288809 3.551423 3.853509 4.234086
2025-03-02 2.462749 2.689839 2.954167 3.292131 3.725287 4.282510 5.095652
2025-03-09 2.306711 2.561647 2.870250 3.285016 3.853438 4.654673 5.996684
2025-03-16 2.172758 2.439292 2.770485 3.231338 3.894795 4.900400 6.806788
2025-03-23 2.108844 2.394543 2.759521 3.287100 4.090977 5.424506 8.442421
2025-03-30 2.007076 2.292142 2.661530 3.206343 4.062831 5.561132 9.383212
2025-04-06 1.915564 2.196691 2.564742 3.115679 4.002460 5.620056 10.202276
2025-04-13 1.846179 2.126082 2.496433 3.059442 3.988750 5.764640 11.493527
2025-04-20 1.818092 2.108265 2.498975 3.108594 4.159844 6.348998 15.810861
2025-04-27 1.808679 2.114424 2.534725 3.211659 4.446035 7.345710 31.038728
2025-05-04 1.771698 2.080480 2.509892 3.214138 4.541678 7.914947 74.768887
2025-05-11 1.736936 2.047803 2.484619 3.212933 4.629311 8.525216 NaN
2025-05-18 1.680534 1.984107 2.412252 3.130359 4.542953 8.549203 NaN
2025-05-25 1.650882 1.957110 2.393673 3.138840 4.656037 9.401104 NaN
2025-06-01 1.619963 1.926889 2.368328 3.132891 4.736253 10.232075 NaN
2025-06-08 1.581201 1.883934 2.321280 3.084389 4.709404 10.569840 NaN
2025-06-15 1.567913 1.876937 2.329024 3.134819 4.930116 12.574788 NaN
2025-06-22 1.528001 1.829921 2.272106 3.061757 4.828390 12.477126 NaN
2025-06-29 1.487973 1.781751 2.211862 2.979492 4.694626 12.081518 NaN
2025-07-06 1.456665 1.745560 2.169367 2.928337 4.636818 12.222688 NaN
2025-07-13 1.447774 1.741800 2.177761 2.973053 4.838649 14.823023 NaN
2025-07-20 1.449067 1.752926 2.210205 3.066574 5.202669 21.639379 NaN
2025-07-27 1.432039 1.736211 2.196769 3.068819 5.303122 26.563696 NaN